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00:25
M&G Investments: - Founded in 1931 and now wholly owned by the Prudential, M&G Investments is one of the UK’s largest life assurance companies with $417 billion AUM. - Dave Fishwick’s Macro & Multi Asset Investment team has managed a macro strategy for the Prudential Assurance Company since 1999. - Strategy has returned 10.4% gross per annum since 2001. - As of March 2015 Dave and his team manage $1.2 billion for institutional clients, $4.8 billion in retail funds.
01:45
How a strategy’s “superior emotional intelligence” creates superior returns: Understanding the “emotional journey” of markets. - Though all of Fishwick’s team are trained economists, strategy is based on exploiting emotional (behavioural) bias in pricing of risk rather than forecasts or views. - Why forecasting fails: Does not consider “emotional aspects of owning assets”. - “A lot” of market volatility not explainable by fundamentals. - Over 15 years of applying this philosophy: Repeatable proc
05:23
The “Feelings surprise”: Generating returns out of market’s emotions: it’s more about what markets feel than what they “know”.
06:59
Learning to do things that don’t feel comfortable: From emotional analysis to real investment: Isolating situations where prices move for non-fundamental reasons. A contrarian’s challenge to engage in trades that are “deeply unsettling”. Trade example: The “unpleasant”, but rewarding experience of buying emerging market debt and currencies in 2013.
09:47
Repeatable process: - Valuation framework. - Quantitative & qualitative analysis. Why this is “not an easy strategy to implement”.
12:25
Working as a true team. M&G Macro & Multi Asset team is able to do independent research & investments but with access to teams in the wider group globally (including Asia, USA and South Africa) as well as M&G infrastructure & resources.
16:51
Review: How has Fishwick’s strategy held up in different market environments since 2001?. Essence of strategy is to “take on and engage with market stress, rather than avoid it”, but fundamental “economic trauma” can interfere (2008). Risk management: Going beyond “stop loss culture”.
20:19
Markets affected by “deep, unstable disequilibrium” provide highly fertile environment for strong future returns. As markets treat volatility as risk, strategies with emotional intelligence can outperform by actively taking on volatility. • Conducting independent research with access to wider Prudential and M&G resources. The critical role of human emotion in price determination: Human behaviour can periodically be the dominant driver of asset pricing.

Dave Fishwick: Avoid forecasts, watch for emotions: How to excel in Global Macro

May 06 2015 1 Comment
Founded in 1901 and now wholly owned by the Prudential, the UK’s largest life assurance company, M&G Investments is one of the UK’s largest and longest established investment houses with more than 80 years’ experience and some $400 billion in AUM. Dave Fishwick’s Macro & Multi Asset Investment team has managed a macro strategy for its parent company since 1999. The strategy has returned 10.4% gross per annum since 2001. As of March 2015 Dave and his team manage $1.2 billion for institutional clients, $4.8 billion in retail funds. He ...more

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